Sensex ends week in red on weaker data

The equity markets snapped its four-week rally and suffered heavy losses this week, due to weakness in global markets on US rate hike fear and on the back of negative key economy data in the for of CPI inflation and IIP numbers.

After taking holiday for three days, the BSE Sensex kicked started the week with a huge loss of 2 per cent at 28,845 after strong US jobs data raised hopes that the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner.

Following which, the BSE benchmark index extended losses and declined nearly a per cent in the two trading sessions as traders awaited for the macro-economic data.

Thereafter, the 30-shares Sensex took a smart U-turn and gained almost a per cent, on hopes of positive inflation data.

On the last day of the week, the BSE headline index exhibited a strong trade in early morning trade and revisited the 29,000-mark to hit s high at 29,183 after the Rajya Saba cleared Insurance Bill and as the global cues were also favourable.

The BSE index, however, reversed gains and in-fact tumbled sharply as the trades panicked on poor inflation data.

The all-India general combined Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 5.4 per cent in February from 5.2 per cent in January 2015. Food items were major contributors to the CPI inflation rise in February 2015.

The Index for Industrial Production (IIP) slowed down in January, to 2.6 per cent as against 3.2 in December 2014.

The BSE Sensex eventually ended with a significant loss of over 3 per cent (946 points) at 28,503 this week.

Similarly, the NSE Nifty also witnessed huge loss of 290 points at 8,648, or 3.2 per cent.

Highlights of Economic Survery 2014-15

FY15 GDP growth seen around 7.4%.

Scope for big bang reforms.

Inflation showing declining trend in FY15.

Govt remains committed to fiscal consolidation.

FY16 GDP growth forecast seen around 8.1-8.5%.

Double digit eco growth now a possibility.

Raitionalisation of food subsidies need more effort.

FY16 retail inflation seen in the range of 5-5.5%.

Current Account Deficit pegged at 1.3% of GDP for FY15.

Need to monitor risks from US monetary policy easing.

Enhance revenue generation a priority for the government.

Daily Market Outlook for 27 Feb

The markets tanked heavily in trade on Thursday following freight hike across industries proposed in the Railway Budget.

The Sensex now seems headed towards the monthly Fibonacci support level at 28,500-odd levels, below which the next target would be 28,000.

On the positive front, the BSE index will now have to break and sustain above 28,960-odd levels for hopes of any pull-back in the remainder of the week.

This is going to be a long week, with markets open on Saturday on account of the Union Budget.

As per the daily Fibonacci charts, the Sensex on Friday, is likely to seek support around 28,605-28,560-28,515, while on the upside may face resistance around 28,890-28,935-28,980.

The NSE Nifty has closed decisively below the 20-DMA, with key momentum oscillators on the daily and the monthly charts in favour of the bears. However, there seem some hopes on the weekly charts, hence a pull-back cannot be ruled out.

In case of further selling, the Nifty may drop towards the lower-end of the Bollinger Band at 8,550-odd level.

Among the key momentum oscillators - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) and the Stochastic Slow are in favour of the bears. The ADX (Average Directional Index) and the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) are also showing signs of tiredness.

On Friday, the NSE Nifty may seek support around 8,640-8,625-8,610, while face resistance around 8,730-8,740-8,755.

The Bank Nifty may seek support around 18,420-18,385-18,350, while on the other hand face resistance around 18,655-18,690-18,730.

Highlights of Rail Budget 2015

Suresh Prabhu, Railway Minister, under the BJP-led Narendra Modi government today on 26 February, 2015, presented the Railway Budget for 2015-16.

Investment in Railways will have an multiplying effect on the rest of the economy.

In the next five years, priority is to increase capacity in the existing rail networks.

Railway ministry received more than 20,000 suggestions via social media.

To modrenise the rail travel.

Will increase annual freight traffic to 1.5 MT.

To increase annual passenger capacity from 21 million to 30 million.

Envisages Rs. 8.5 lakh crore investment plan for the next five year.

Operating Ratio for FY16 at 88.5 per cent vs. 91.8 per from for FY15.

No hike in passenger fare.

Freight hike proposed in the range of 0.8-10 per cent for grains, pulses, urea, coal, iron & steel, cement, LPG and kerosene.

To build additional new toilets at 650 stations.

To replace 17,000 toilets with vacuum toilets.

All India helpline number 138 will be operational from 1 March, 2015.

Toll free number 182 for security related issues.

SMS on mobile to a valid proof for travelling on trains.

Wi-Fi at all A-1 category stations is provided, to extend the service to B category 
stations too.

Lifts planned at major stations, Rs. 120 crore granted for the same.

Advance booking days to increased by 120 days.

To move towards paperless ticketing.

To develop 10 select stations to develop satellite terminals by FY16.

Feasibility study is on for high speed train between Mumbai and Ahmedabad.

Expansion of railway network to remote and backward area.

To revamp PPP model for Railways.

Announcement of new trains during the Parliament session.

Planned expenditure to increase by 52 per cent to 1.1 lakh crore next year.

Sensex trades soft ahead of Railway Budget

The markets have started trading on the Railway Budget day on a tentative note, with key benchmark indices in the negative terrain.

The Indian Railway Budget will be presented around 1100 hrs. today in the Parliament.

The Sensex slipped over 100 points to a low of 28,900. In the process, the BSE index seems to have taken support around the daily Fibonacci S-1 at 28,890-odd levels.

Going ahead, the bias for the rest of the day may be cautiously positive as long as the BSE index manages to sustain above 28,900-odd levels.

On the upside, the Sensex may look to bounce back into the positive zone and test a high around 29,125-odd levels.

On the other hand, in case, the BSE index breaks the support at 28,900, the index can drop to 28,820-odd levels.

Sun Pharma and Bajaj Auto are the major losers - down 1.7 per cent each at Rs. 876 and Rs. 2,145, respectively.

Infosys, Hindalco and Axis Bank are down a per cent each among the Sensex 30 stocks.

On the positive front, Sesa Sterlite has surged 1.7 per cent to Rs. 214.

BHEL and ONGC are the other notable gainers.

Daily Market Outlook for 26 Feb

The markets are likely to be choppy in a range, until the key events are over by the weekend.

For now, it seems, like the BSE Sensex may move in a broad range of 28,960-29,500, a break in either direction can create unexpected movement.

The bias is likely to be cautiously positive as long as the Sensex manages to sustain above 28,960. On the positive front, sustained trade above 29,230-odd level, can trigger a rally towards 29,400-29,500.

As per the daily Fibonacci charts, the Sensex on Thursday, is likely to seek support around 28,890-28,855-28,820, while on the upside may face resistance around 29,125-29,160-29,195.

The NSE Nifty seems to be hovering around the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) for the last three trading sessions. The daily Bollinger Bands indicates a range of 8,550-8,975 in the near term.

Among the key momentum oscillators - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) and the Stochastic Slow are in favour of the bears. The ADX (Average Directional Index) and the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) however are positive.

On Thursday, the NSE Nifty may seek support around 8,735-8,720-8,710, while face resistance around 8,800-8,810-8,825.

The Bank Nifty may seek support around 18,590-18,550-18,505, while on the other hand face resistance around 18,870-18,915-18,960.

Market Outlook for 23-27 February

The markets are entering the biggest week of any calendar year - the Budget week on a tricky note.

The Sensex after taking support around the monthly S-1 (around 28,040) has bounced back strongly and touched a high of 29,522. The BSE index has given a minor buy signal on the monthly Fibonacci charts, and may now test 29,860-odd level on the upside.

This week, the BSE index is likely to move in a tight range of 28-960-29,500, a decisive break on either side can trigger a sharp movement in the particular direction.

Next week, the Sensex is likely to seek support around 29,065-29,010-28,960, while face resistance around 29,400-29,450-29,505.

The NSE Nifty has now bounced back above the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average), which is 8,775. The NSE index is likely to trade with a positive bias as long as the NSE index sustains above the 20-DMA.

On the upside, the Nifty may test the upper-end of the Bollinger Band, which is around the 9,000-mark.

On the flip side, in case, the NSE index drops below the 20-DMA, the index may slide towards the lower-end of the Bollinger Band at 8,550.

Among the key momentum oscillators - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) is in neutral mode. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index), the ADX (Average Directional Index) and the Stochastic Slow are in favour of the bulls.

The weekly MACD, RSI and the ADX index are also positive. The Stochastic Slow is in neutral mode.

Next week, the Nifty may seek support around 8,780-8,768-8,753, while face resistance around 8,874-8,888-8,902.

The Bank Nifty may seek support around 18,800-18,720-18,645, while face resistance around 19,300-19,380-19,455.